Report Launch: Recreational Europe
Hanway Associates was delighted to author the new First Wednesdays report, Recreational Europe, produced in partnership with Cansativa, Curaleaf International and Ince.
With a population of more than 1.5x the combined populations of the US and Canada, the potential scale of Europe’s recreational market is immense.
This once-hypothetical scenario is fast becoming a reality. European cannabis reform has become a question of how, not if. In this report we take an expansive look at recreational cannabis across Europe and the forces that are set to shape it.
Recreational Europe sees the launch of The European Cannabis Tracker, the first-ever nationally-representative polling on cannabis conducted across 8 key markets.
Our polling reveals a continent poised for reform - with 55% of Europeans in favour of legal and regulated cannabis sales to over-18s. This figure is strikingly similar to the percentage by which ballot initiatives for legalisation passed in Colorado and Washington, which ushered in the first US legal cannabis markets in 2012.
We also find that nearly 30% of Europeans would consider trying legal cannabis - a potential consumer base of over 120m adults across core European markets.
The first of three chapters highlights the scale of recreational reforms already taking place across Central Europe, in the Netherlands, Luxembourg, Switzerland and Germany; Europe’s legacy sector, rooted in genetics, and the North American operators starting to build a presence on the continent.
We also explore the most important policy considerations faced by legalising European markets, from UN and EU obligations to international trade, access to capital, pricing and taxation and the status of medical cannabis.
Europe’s current trajectory compares to that of the US in 2012 when Washington and Colorado legalised. Chapter Two crosses the Atlantic to reveal regulatory case studies and commercial insights from how legal markets developed in the US and Canada. It is critical that we do not spend years trying to build a system from scratch when we have this wealth of experience to draw upon.
We present lessons from North America that should be implemented early on in Europe, which include balancing licencing for production, retail and micro-businesses, setting a sensible taxation policy to help the legal market thrive, early amnesties to bring in legacy genetics and operators, and making social equity and inclusion a key part of the conversation.
We also identify strategies to support a rapid scale-up in Europe, from licencing brands and IP to leveraging tech solutions for insights and compliance, and the importance of access to banking, institutional capital and public markets. Owners of rare or limited licences are in a coveted position, and stand to see successes like their US counterparts did.
Can you imagine a boutique dispensary on Oxford Street attracting instagram influencers, or a world-famous cannabis social club in Kreuzberg catering to the trendy locals?
Our final Chapter looks to the future of legal cannabis in Europe, exploring the notion of ‘Cannabis Plus’ - the intersections of cannabis with music, food and fashion - and how this might take hold in Europe. We also take a broader look across the region at the movements for reform that are continuing to unfold.
To help understand what the future may bring, we’ve shared Hanway’s own Legalisation Matrix; our mapping of the themes and factors which affect the pace and shape of reform in Europe. From a nations’ drug policies through to political arithmetic, media framing, economic indicators and broader cultural trends, we present a multi-dimensional tool for assessing the conditions for reform across different markets.
Through The European Cannabis Tracker, we have rich insights into what the public thinks about cannabis, the perceived benefits and risks of legalisation, and preferred models of sales and regulation - at an individual country and a pan-European level. What we find is a region that is supportive of a shift from prohibition to cautious and controlled commercial markets - but with marked differences in enthusiasm and reservations across different markets and age groups.
You can read more of our key polling takeaways throughout the report - and contact us to find out more.
This free report wouldn’t have been possible without our sponsors Cansativa, Curaleaf International and Ince, with an additional thanks to our media partners KCSA, Pagefield and TBWA Dublin. We hope you enjoy reading it as much as we enjoyed producing it.